Three Points of No Return
-- Glimpses of the Future?

Third Point: PARALLEL WORLDS

Who foresaw the political change that has taken place in Europe? Was it prophesied in Science Fiction? No! That is not Science Fiction's job. Science Fiction is not illustrated futurology or calculated probabilities -- it is a game of possibilities. Just the same Science Fiction has been hard hit by the present political experiences. Dozens of novels that could have been regarded two or three years ago as probable perspectives have had to be turned into novels of alternate worlds.

If a novel had been offered to me a year ago which included in its plot the fall of the Berlin Wall, free travel between east and west and Vaclav Havel as President of Czechoslovakia, I would have regarded the author as an innocent dreamer, a hopeless crackpot without any regard for logic and orderly political development. The manuscript would have been rejected out of hand as a piece of utopian preaching. Of course the futurologists themselves all failed to predict the future and were caught up in the tide of events. And, who'd have thought it, so were the astrologers. Not one of them foresaw what would happen: on the contrary may prophesied a military engagement between east and west.

So the impossible has happened, something that was not even within the bounds of possibility. Applied socialism, socialist governments, no longer exist; there are a few exceptions but even they show signs of dissolution. True socialism has, in fact, not existed, since Stalin's time. Powerful politicians were in control; they accepted only those thinkers who praised their reigns of terror and backed them up theoretically. All those who thought differently were pushed aside, outlawed and liquidated.

Frank Hebrew never tired of quoting Lord Acton, the British historian: "Power corrupts -- and absolute power corrupts absolutely." The ruling cliques in the so-called communist countries became over the years totally corrupt and decayed, politically, morally and economically. A totalitarian bureaucracy had arisen that was bound to collapse under the weight of its own alienation from actual conditions. All it needed was one push and this was given by the leadership of the Soviet Union. When Gorbatschow took over the government he read the signs of the time correctly; he saw that things could go no further and he undertook what Germans call "Eine Flucht nach vorn". He leapt ahead of the approaching disaster in order to save what could be saved.

Does this mean that Capitalism has won? One of our more conservative parties, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, thinks so and is celebrating with mottoes like "Socialism Nevermore!" The CSU election posters show Karl Marx as a failed philosopher who should apologise to the proletarians of all nations. This the kind of ignorant and tasteless stuff we get from conservative right-wing dinosaurs and their profit-hungry fellow-travellers, the Yuppies. These people cannot wait to move into the former socialist countries, introduce the hard-sell society and fleece the suckers in the name of free enterprise... as if the poor easterners had any chance in this unequal market. These profiteers and carpet-baggers show an insatiable lust for profit and so called progress at any price. They see the future only as an increase of interest on the interest rates; they spare no thoughts for the future of Mankind, only for their own.

I believe these people are celebrating too early. This is typically short-sighted: they think only in fiscal years and legislature periods. They are not able to think of long-term effects or to think and act in the interest of the community, let alone that of mankind. They are unable to recognise the fact that reckless Capitalism inevitably kindles the fire of new Socialist ideas.

It is high time that the hoary old eastern bureaucracy was swept on to the rubbish tip of history. The Socialist idea has been insulted and injured by its example of decades. But this Socialist ideal appealed to intellectuals throughout the world. Most of them turned aside from the applied socialism of the communist governments because they were disgusted by Stalinist practices: think of George Orwell and Arthur Koestler.

In East Germany the time of fast money is about to break out a time to fill one's pockets and push the weaker to the wall. East Germany looks like an El Dorado for unification profiteers and loan sharks. The legal position is uncertain, the citizens are inexperienced in commercial affairs and frightened by the sudden changes; it is hard to shake off the fear of the bureaucracy and of the party bosses, instilled into the population by years of state oppression. But these times will pass. The left-wing parties of Europe, under sharp attack from the right, will regain their footing in the European Community, together with the trade unions. Now there is a real chance to develop a socialist system of government, a socialist position somewhere between the Scandinavian model and the Eurocommunism of Italy.

Is this a Utopia from the day before yesterday? No, I believe it is a timeless and humane idea. Men will continue to live and strive for the realisation of this idea against all opposition and in spite of all historical perversions. In the same way the ideals of Christianity will always be part of human aspiration, in spite of the paralysing influence of the churches.

A historic moment has been reached: things are moving politically from the Baltic's to South Africa, from Korea to Chile. We must not miss the chance to create a just society in which every human being can live in peace and have the opportunity for a worthwhile existence: without this liberty and justice for all our species has no future. Mankind has learned to be afraid of atomic weapons; we have lived on the edge of nuclear holocaust for too long. Talking of possible fears I have finally to ask you all: please, keep an eye on my country. You Science Fiction readers, more than other people, are accustomed to read What-if... scenarios, to think in alternative and look at certain developments from another perspective.

A united Germany... what could it be like? All of us who know the Germans believe that a new economic miracle is on the way; it has already been programmed by the proverbial German efficiency. When modern industrial installations have risen from the ruins of the GDR. Germany could become a disproportionately strong economic power in the European Community and, tomorrow, possibly in the world. This will cause envy and ill-will; we have already heard the first reactions, not only from Rome and London, and we have heard the Germans' touchy reaction to this criticism.

Germany could be forced into isolation by these unfriendly reactions on both sides. An explosive mixture of wounded national vanity, stubbornness and arrogance could grow, poisoning the international atmosphere as it did between the two World Wars, when it finally led to a terrible conflict. Hundreds and thousands of Americans, English, French, Dutch, Belgians, Russians, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders and others gave their lives to overcome the evil spirit of National Socialism and send it back into hell. These brave men of many nations saved us all from a parallel world of unspeakable horror, fear and bestiality which would have meant the end of human reason and human civilisation. The Nazis began their grisly work in Auschwitz and Treblinka and, at the last, were considering the systematic destruction of the entire non-aryan population of the world. There were actual plans for this. The next step following the destruction of the Jews was to be the destruction of African Negroes.

We all hope devoutly that the Nazis met their point of no return in 1945 but there is no guarantee of that. Those soldiers from all nations, your fathers and grandfathers, must not have died in vain... but the evil spirit of Nazi-ism that they defeated is not dead; it is lurking about ready to grasp power again. The spectres of intolerance, hostility to strangers, xenophobia, are haunting the whole of Europe not only in Germany. The Germans can become dangerous, however, because of their dreadful efficiency.

Germans are not so very proud of being German. They have guilt feelings however much these are repressed. But Germans are proud of their efficiency. They are of the opinion that if everyone else were half as efficient and diligent as they are, and would get to work properly instead of loafing... then there would be no more hunger or poverty in the world. In fact the world would look like Germany... West Germany of course... clean, neat and orderly. This is a horror vision of course and somehow the German recognises this too, so he gets into his Mercedes and drives away on holiday into other lands where things are more relaxed. He's not very pleased to hear that his efficiency contributes to the death of the forests, pollutes the rivers, contaminates the air and makes the quality of the ground water deteriorate every year, because efficiency should give him that special feeling of superiority. The Japanese are a thorn in his flesh. He cannot forgive his former allies not only for finding out how the German makes good cameras and radios but especially for being so devilishly efficient that they make better cameras and radios.

I'm talking here about a truly dreadful German efficiency, with overtones of diligence and thoroughness. Claude Lanzman in his film Shoa gives a ghastly example. In the course of the "final solution of the Jewish question" concentration camp inmates were loaded into closed trucks under pretext of a journey to another camp. Actually they were driven around in the district while poison gas was pumped into the truck and the journey ended at the crematorium, where the bodies were unloaded and the vehicles prepared for the next trip. In order to increase the transport capacity experiments were made with a larger freight compartment on the same chassis.

Experts were afraid that extra passengers would cause strain on the front axle but a construction engineer dispelled their doubts. His argument was as follows: when the truck drove off and gas began to stream in the prisoners would instinctively rush to the locked back doors trying to escape -- and the front axle would not be overloaded at all. It would need no reinforcement.

This is the kind of thing that impresses me as a dreadful efficiency -- ice cold technical efficiency, completely inhuman and completely amoral. I am sorry to say that this kind of efficiency is still to be found in Germany right up to the present day. Whether it is submarines for South Africa, technical equipment for chemical weapons for Libya, biological equipment for B-weapons for Baghdad or the equipment for nuclear technology in Pakistan... German efficiency in these fields is in demand by the military throughout the world. The efficient death... made in Germany. So those old spectres of discrimination and the hatred of foreigners will rise again as more people come from the east and from the Third World. Loud talk and threats will be heard throughout the beer fumes when the regulars meet at the pub. And we have never been short of political demagogues. So I ask you again... keep an eye on Germany.

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